Where the break even year actually comes from
Almost every rent versus buy tool prints a year and stops. The year is not the finding, it is the consequence of two piles of money you never get back. Put both piles side by side and the answer explains itself.
On the renting side the unrecoverable pile is simple: the rent, plus a small insurance premium. On the buying side it is mortgage interest, property tax, insurance, maintenance, any HOA fee, the closing costs going in, the selling costs coming out, and the investment growth given up on every dollar the purchase locked away. The down payment itself is not in that list, and neither is the principal portion of the payment, because both come back to you when you sell. They cancel out of the arithmetic exactly, which is why this page charges you for the growth they could have earned rather than counting them twice.
Against all of that sits one credit: the rise in the home's value. Subtract it and you have the true cost of owning for a given number of years. The break even is the first year that figure drops below the cost of renting over the same stretch.
Every published assumption, as of September 2026
These are the figures the leading calculators ship with, and the public data sitting behind them. Every row was read on 23 September 2026, and every one of them is a moving target.
| Assumption | Published figure | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Closing costs to buy | 2% to 5% | Of the purchase price, with a national average near $6,800 on a single family home. NerdWallet instead uses 6% of the loan amount and calls that deliberately high. |
| Costs to sell | 6% to 9% | Commission averaged 5.46% nationwide in 2026, with another 2.70% of seller closing costs on top. Fidelity defaults to a flat 7%. |
| Home appreciation, long run | 4.0% a year | Fidelity's default, stated as the 30 year average of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. |
| Home appreciation, right now | 1.7% a year | FHFA House Price Index, first quarter 2025 to first quarter 2026, released 26 May 2026. Quarter on quarter it was 0.5%. |
| Rent growth | 2.3% a year | Typical US asking rent reached $1,962 in July 2026, up 2.3% on the year. Calculator defaults sit at 2.5% to 3%. |
| Maintenance | 1% to 2% | Of home value a year. NerdWallet prefills 1.5%, Fidelity uses 0.5%, most independent tools use 1%. |
| Property tax | 1.1% to 1.2% | Of market value a year, across three published default sets. Fidelity uses 1.15%. |
| Mortgage rate | 6.95% | Freddie Mac 30 year fixed average, week ending 17 September 2026. It was 6.26% a year earlier, and the 15 year sat at 6.26%. |
| Return on locked cash | 4% to 10.5% | The widest disagreement in the field. One tool defaults to 4%, Fidelity to 6%, another to the full 10.5% of a long run S&P 500 figure. |
Figures are national and get re-checked yearly, except the mortgage rate, which moves weekly. Your own market can sit a long way from all of them, and the two rows worth arguing with hardest are appreciation and the return on locked cash.
Four levers, and only four
Seventeen inputs sit above this, but the break even year answers to a handful of them. If the number surprises you, one of these is the reason.
- Gap Rent growth against appreciation Not either figure on its own. Rent rising faster than the home makes renting steadily worse, and closing that gap pushes the break even out by years. Two calculators using the same 3% appreciation can disagree wildly because their rent growth differs by half a point.
- 11% The round trip Three percent to get in and eight to get out is eleven percent of the price spent on the transaction alone, on the defaults above. That is the hurdle the first several years of ownership are spent clearing, and it is why a short stay almost never pays.
- 5% The return you charge locked cash On the defaults here, growth given up is roughly a quarter of the whole cost of owning across fifteen years. Drop the return from 5% to 4% and the break even moves in by several years. Nothing else on this page shifts it that far.
- Yrs How long you truly stay Sellers in 2025 had owned for a median of 11 years, an all time high, and buyers now expect to stay 15. Answer honestly rather than optimistically, because leaving early is the one mistake this arithmetic cannot forgive.
The payment itself, along with PMI and the escrow detail behind property tax and insurance, belongs to the mortgage calculator. This page needs only the interest portion, so it works out the payment and moves on.
What the bars count, and what they refuse to
A comparison is only honest if it says where it stops. Everything in the left column changes the number above. Everything in the right column is real, matters to the decision, and is deliberately left out, because pricing it would be a guess dressed up as arithmetic.
Counted, to the dollar
Each of these becomes a visible segment, so you can see which one is doing the damage.
- Mortgage interest only. The principal portion is not a cost, it moves money from your account into your equity, so it never appears in the bar.
- Property tax and home insurance, with tax following the home's rising value rather than sitting still.
- Maintenance as a share of value, which climbs with the home, because a more valuable roof costs more to replace.
- HOA fees, escalated each year at the rate you set for insurance and fees.
- Closing costs on the way in and selling costs on the way out, the second worked out on what the home is worth when you sell, not on what you paid.
- Growth given up on the down payment, the closing cheque and every dollar of equity, compounded monthly at the return you set.
- Appreciation credited back, the one item that reduces the cost of owning rather than adding to it.
- Rent compounding at your growth rate, with renter's insurance rising alongside it.
Left out, on purpose
Not oversights. Each one is either unknowable for you specifically, or too small to justify the complexity it would add.
- The mortgage interest deduction. Fewer than one filer in ten itemises since 2017, so modelling it would flatter buying for the nine in ten who get nothing from it.
- The capital gains exclusion of $250,000 single and $500,000 married filing jointly. It bites only on a very large gain, and it shelters a profit rather than reducing a cost.
- PMI below twenty percent down, roughly $100 to $300 a month, which the mortgage calculator handles properly alongside escrow.
- Repairs arriving as one bill. A percentage a year is a smooth line. A failed heat pump in February is not, and cash flow is what actually breaks people.
- The unplanned move. A job, a separation or a family illness can force a sale in year three, and that is the scenario the round trip cost punishes hardest.
- Security of tenure, and its opposite. A landlord can end a tenancy. A fixed mortgage payment cannot be raised. Neither has a price, and both are real.
- Forced saving. A mortgage makes you build equity whether you meant to or not. A renter only comes out ahead here if the difference is genuinely invested.
- Your street. National averages are the only honest default, and no national average has ever described a neighbourhood.
Renting, buying, and the year the two piles cross over
A break even is a hurdle built from transaction costs and forgone growth. Here is how high it is, and what clears it.
Rent or buy is not really a question about money each month. It is a question about a hurdle. Buying a home means paying a large, one-off toll to get in, a second and larger toll to get out, and a stream of costs in between that no landlord ever bills you for. The rise in the home's value pays that toll back, but slowly. The break even year is simply the year the repayment finally catches the toll, and everything else on this page is an attempt to show you how high the toll is before you commit to it.
The figure that decides the answer is not the mortgage rate. It is the return you believe the cash a purchase locks up could have earned elsewhere. On the defaults here, moving it from 5 percent to 4 percent pulls the break even from year 12 to year 9. Moving it to 6 percent pushes it out to year 21. No other single input on this page comes close.
Two piles of money you never get back
The clean way to compare renting with buying is to ignore everything that comes back to you and add up only what does not. Economists call that the unrecoverable cost, and once you frame it that way the comparison stops being an argument and becomes arithmetic.
A renter's unrecoverable pile is short. It is the rent, which compounds upward year after year, and a renter's insurance premium of a few hundred dollars a year. That is the whole list.
An owner's pile is long. Mortgage interest, which on a 30 year loan is the single biggest line for well over a decade. Property tax, which follows the home's rising assessed value rather than staying where it started. Home insurance, which has been rising faster than general inflation in much of the country. Maintenance, conventionally taken as 1 to 2 percent of the home's value every year, whether or not anything breaks this year. Any HOA fee. The closing costs paid on the way in, commonly 2 to 5 percent of the price, and the selling costs paid on the way out, commonly 6 to 9 percent once agent commission and seller closing costs are added together. And finally the growth given up on every dollar the purchase has tied up.
Against that single long list sits exactly one credit: the increase in the home's value. Subtract it, and what is left is what owning genuinely cost you over that stretch. Compare it with the renter's pile over the same stretch and the break even falls straight out.
The down payment is not a cost, which is exactly why it costs you
This trips up almost every conversation about buying. A 20 percent down payment on a $420,000 home is $84,000, and it feels like the biggest cost in the deal. It is not a cost at all. It is a transfer. The money leaves your bank account and reappears as equity, and you get it back when you sell. The same is true of the principal portion of every monthly payment: that part of the cheque is savings wearing a bill's clothing.
Work through the algebra and the down payment and the principal cancel out of the comparison completely. What does not cancel is the opportunity. That $84,000, plus the closing cheque, plus every dollar of principal you repay afterwards, is capital sitting inside a house instead of earning a return somewhere else. This page charges the buying side for that, compounded monthly at whatever return you set, and shows it as its own segment in the bar. On the default numbers it is about a quarter of the total cost of owning over fifteen years, which makes it larger than property tax, insurance and maintenance put together.
That choice is the reason this tool often reports a later break even than a lender's calculator does. A tool that ignores forgone growth is quietly assuming your alternative to buying was to keep the down payment in cash under a mattress.
Getting out costs more than getting in
Buyer closing costs get all the attention because they arrive with a signature and a wire transfer. The exit is bigger and almost nobody plans for it. Agent commission averaged 5.46 percent nationally in 2026, with roughly another 2.70 percent in seller closing costs such as title work and transfer taxes, so eight percent of the sale price is a realistic figure rather than a pessimistic one.
Two details make that worse than it first reads. First, the selling cost is a percentage of what the home is worth on the day you sell, not what you paid, so appreciation quietly inflates your exit bill. Second, the two tolls stack. Three percent in and eight percent out is eleven percent of the purchase price handed over to the transaction itself. At 3 percent annual appreciation, that alone takes roughly three and a half years of price growth to repay, before a single dollar of interest, tax or maintenance is considered. This is the real reason short ownership is punished so hard, and it is why every serious source lands somewhere between four and ten years rather than at one or two.
The race nobody names: rent growth against appreciation
Every calculator takes rent growth and home appreciation as two separate inputs, and then nobody mentions that only the gap between them matters. Owning locks your largest housing cost, the mortgage principal and interest, at a fixed dollar figure for thirty years. Renting does not. So the faster rent climbs relative to the home's value, the sooner the fixed payment wins.
The sensitivity is brutal. Holding everything else at the defaults here, rent growing at 3 percent a year gives a break even in year 11. At 2.5 percent it moves to year 12. At 2 percent it slides to year 16, and at 1.5 percent buying never catches up at all within a working lifetime. Half a percentage point on a number most people guess in two seconds is the difference between a sensible purchase and a bad one. It is worth knowing that US asking rents rose 2.3 percent in the year to July 2026, while the FHFA house price index rose just 1.7 percent in the year to the first quarter of 2026. Both are well below the 3 percent that most calculators default to.
Why a bigger down payment usually pulls the break even forward
There is a genuine tug of war here, and which way it falls depends on two numbers. A larger down payment means less borrowed, so less interest. It also means more capital locked in the house, so more growth given up. Whichever rate is higher wins.
With a mortgage at 6.95 percent and an assumed return of 5 percent, borrowing costs more than investing earns, so every extra dollar of down payment helps. On the defaults here, 5 percent down breaks even in year 15, 20 percent down in year 12, and a cash purchase in year 5. Flip the assumption so that the expected return sits comfortably above the mortgage rate, as it did for anyone who locked a sub 3 percent loan in 2021, and the arithmetic reverses: a small down payment becomes the better choice and the cheap mortgage becomes an asset rather than a burden.
What the number is not allowed to know
Four things are left out of the comparison on purpose, and saying so is part of the answer. The mortgage interest deduction is out because fewer than one filer in ten has itemised since 2017, so including it would flatter buying for nearly everyone reading. The capital gains exclusion is out because it shelters a profit rather than reducing a cost. Private mortgage insurance is out because the mortgage calculator models it properly alongside escrow, and this page only needs the interest portion of the payment. And repairs are smoothed into a percentage rather than modelled as the lumpy, badly timed bills they really are.
Two more things cannot be priced at all. A landlord can end a tenancy, and a fixed mortgage payment cannot be raised, so buying purchases a kind of certainty that no spreadsheet converts into dollars. Against that, a mortgage is also a commitment that makes an unplanned move expensive at exactly the moment life has already become expensive.
How to actually use the answer
Run it once with honest inputs, then run it twice more with pessimistic ones. Set appreciation to the 1.7 percent the national index has actually delivered recently rather than the 3 percent every tool defaults to. Set the selling cost to 8 percent rather than 6. If the break even still lands comfortably inside how long you genuinely expect to stay, the purchase survives contact with a bad decade. Sellers in 2025 had owned for a median of 11 years and buyers now expect to stay around 15, so those are reasonable horizons against which to judge the number. If the break even only works on optimistic assumptions, what you have is not a plan, it is a forecast.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the break even year on this page actually mean?
It is the first year at which the total unrecoverable cost of owning, after crediting the rise in the home's value, drops below the total unrecoverable cost of renting over the same stretch. It assumes you sell at the end of that year, so the selling costs are included in the figure. Sell earlier and renting was the cheaper route. Stay past it and buying pulls ahead, and keeps pulling ahead.
It is not a statement that your monthly payment is lower than rent, which it usually is not for years. Across the major published calculators the break even lands somewhere between four and ten years, and the spread comes almost entirely from their differing assumptions rather than from differing arithmetic.
Is the down payment counted as a cost of buying?
No, and that is deliberate. The down payment is a transfer, not a cost. It leaves your bank account and reappears as equity in the home, and you get it back when you sell. The same is true of the principal portion of every monthly payment. Work the algebra through and both cancel out of the comparison exactly.
What does not cancel is the growth that money could have earned somewhere else, which is charged to the buying side as its own bar segment. So the down payment is absent from the cost list while still shaping the answer, which is why a purchase with a huge down payment and a purchase with a tiny one can break even years apart.
Why does the buying side get charged for investment growth it never earned?
Because the alternative to buying is not keeping the money in a drawer. If you do not put $84,000 into a down payment and another $12,600 into closing costs, that cash is available to invest, and over fifteen years the compounding is substantial. Charging the buying side for it is the only way to compare the two paths honestly, and it is the same idea the finance world calls cost of capital.
This page charges the return you set, compounded monthly, on the equity in the home plus the closing cheque. Equity starts at the down payment and grows with every principal repayment and every dollar of appreciation, so the charge grows too. On the default run it works out at roughly a quarter of the whole cost of owning, larger than property tax, insurance and maintenance combined.
Do the costs of getting in or the costs of getting out matter more?
Getting out, and it is not close. Buyer closing costs usually run 2 to 5 percent of the purchase price. Selling costs run 6 to 9 percent of the sale price once agent commission and seller closing costs are added together, and commission alone averaged 5.46 percent nationally in 2026.
The exit also has a nastier shape. It is a percentage of what the home is worth on the day you sell, not what you paid, so appreciation inflates your exit bill as it goes. Setting the selling cost from 6 percent to 8 percent on the default run moves the break even from year 10 to year 12, which is a bigger swing than most people expect from a field they never edit.
What home appreciation rate should I enter?
Lower than the default you will find on most tools. Almost every calculator in this category ships with 3 percent. The long run figure quoted by Fidelity, taken from the 30 year average of the Case-Shiller index, is 4.0 percent. But the FHFA House Price Index recorded only 1.7 percent for the year to the first quarter of 2026, and 0.5 percent quarter on quarter.
The useful approach is to run it twice. Use your own market's recent figure for the realistic case, then re-run at 1.7 percent to see what a flat decade does. On the defaults here, dropping appreciation from 3 percent to 1.7 percent moves the break even from year 12 to year 20, and taking it to zero pushes it to year 24.
How much does the rent growth figure change the answer?
More than almost anyone assumes, because it is the thing that makes renting get worse over time while a fixed mortgage payment stays still. On the default numbers, rent growing at 3 percent a year gives a break even in year 11. At 2.5 percent it is year 12. At 2 percent it slides to year 16, and at 1.5 percent buying never catches up at all.
Half a percentage point on a field most people fill in without thinking is the difference between a sensible purchase and a poor one. For reference, US asking rents rose 2.3 percent in the year to July 2026, which is below the 2.5 to 3 percent that most calculators default to.
Should I use the rent I pay now, or the rent on a home like the one I would buy?
The rent on a comparable home, every time. The most common way to get a misleading answer here is to compare a $420,000 house with a one bedroom apartment, which prices a lifestyle upgrade as though it were a cost of owning.
If you genuinely would stay in the smaller place, then the smaller rent is the right input and the extra space is a benefit the arithmetic will not show you. If you would rent something equivalent, price that. A useful sanity check is the ratio of price to annual rent: the default run here is $420,000 against $30,000 a year, which is 14. A much higher ratio means renting is cheap in your market, and the break even will move out accordingly.
Does a bigger down payment bring the break even year forward?
It depends on whether your mortgage rate is above or below the return you expect on invested cash, and the calculator resolves that tug of war for you. A bigger down payment means less interest, which helps, but more capital locked inside the house, which hurts.
With the defaults here, a 6.95 percent mortgage against an assumed 5 percent return, borrowing costs more than investing earns, so more down is better: 5 percent down breaks even in year 15, 20 percent in year 12, and an all cash purchase in year 5. Anyone holding a mortgage at 3 percent while expecting 6 percent from investments sees the opposite, and a cheap loan becomes worth keeping rather than paying off.
What should I use this calculator for, and what should I use the mortgage calculator for?
This page owns the comparison. It answers how long you have to stay, what the full cost of each path is once transaction costs and forgone growth are counted, how the rent growth and appreciation rates fight each other, and what the comparison deliberately leaves out. It works out a mortgage payment only because it needs the interest portion.
The mortgage calculator owns the payment itself: principal, interest, taxes and insurance together, private mortgage insurance below 20 percent down, escrow, and the amortisation schedule. If your question is what will I pay each month, go there. If your question is should I buy at all, stay here. For a general repayment schedule on any borrowing, the loan calculator handles it.